Selected References for The Avalanche Factor

This is a select list of references for The Avalanche Factor. I will update this pages as I learn about better references. Please let me know about references that I should know about. I’m a sap for quality articles and papers! Much of this book is based on my education and experience, filtered through my opinion, which may not have a reference. And I’m not on social media, so I’ve missed all that, so please send me the signal in the noise!

Primary References

Chapter 1. Introduction

Avalanche Statistics

Fatalities and Avalanche Characteristics

  • Hardesty, Drew. 2016. Analysis of Utah Avalanche Fatalities in the Modern Era. Proceedings of the ISSW.

  • Logan and Greene. 2014. The distribution of fatalities by avalanche problem in Colorado. Proceedings of the ISSW.

  • Logan and Greene. 2016. The Avalanche Charater Frequency of Reported Avalanche Incidents in Colorado. Proceedings of the ISSW.

Mindset 

Uncertainty

  • Jamieson, Haegeli and Statham. 2015. Uncertainty in snow avalanche risk assessments. GeoQuebec.

  • Technical Aspects of Snow and Avalanche Risk Management: Resources and Guidelines for Avalanche Practitioners in Canada. 2016. Canadian Avalanche Association.

Think Like a Scientist

Learning

  • Hardesty. Expertise and the Avalanche Problems. Utah Avalanche Center blog, accessed November 12, 2023: https://utahavalanchecenter.org/blog/26871

  • Hutchinson, Jake. 2024. Experience, expertise, and the pursuit of mastery. The Avalanche Review 42.4.

Chapter 2. Terrain

Slope Angle

ATES

Field Navigation

Pixel Size

Chapter 3. Weather and Snowpack

Snow Climate

Climate Change

Snow Surface Energy Exchange

  • Jamieson, Bruce. 2017. Energy exchange (heat transfers) at the snow surface: https://vimeo.com/243958459

  • Kalio, Greg. 2020-2023. Personal communication.

Weak Layers and Fatalities

Crusts 

Near-Surface Faceting 

  • Birkeland, Karl. 1998. Terminology and predominant processes associated with the formation of weak layers of near-surface faceted crystals in the mountain snowpack. Arctic and Alpine Research, 30(2): 193-199. 

Pit Tests

  • Birkeland, Karl and Chabot, Doug. 2006. Minimizing false stable stability test results, why digging more snowpits is a good idea. Proceedings of the ISSW.

  • Greene, Ethan et al. 2022. Snow, Weather, and Avalanche Guidelines (SWAG), fourth edition. American Avalanche Association: https://www.americanavalancheassociation.org/swag/

Chapter 4. Observing

Red and Yellow Flags

  • McCammon and Haegeli. 2006. Evaluation of a rule-based decision aid for recreational travelers in avalanche terrain. Proceedings of the ISSW

About Observing

Extended Column Test

Chapter 5. Danger and Problems

Main Reference

  • Statham, Grant et al. 2017. Conceptual model of avalanche hazard. Natural Hazards.

Problems

Avalanche Release

  • Jamieson, Bruce. How do natural dry slab avalanches release?: https://vimeo.com/177165729

  • Schweizer et al. 2016. Avalanche release 101. Proceedings of the ISSW.

Type

  • See also Chapter 3 references for Weak Layers and Fatalities.

  • Lees. Wet snow avalanches. Utah Avalanche Center blog, accessed September 30, 2023: https://utahavalanchecenter.org/blog/16110

  • Jamieson, Bruce et al, 2010, Which Obs For Which Avalanche Type?, Proceedings of the ISSW.

Travel Advice

  • Fisher et al. 2022. Travel and terrain advice statements in public avalanche bulletins. Natural Hazards.

  • Wagner, Wendy and Hardesty, Drew. 2014. Travel advice for the avalanche problems: a public forecasting tool. Proceedings of the ISSW.

Forecasting

Danger

Chapter 6. People

Rethinking the Human Factor

Risk

Wicked Environment

  • Hogarth et al, 2015, The two settings of kind and wicked learning environments, Psychological Science, 24(5): 379–385.

Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs

  • Maslow. 1943. A theory of human motivation. Psychological Review, 50(4): 370–396. 

Intuition

  • Kahneman. 2011. Thinking, Fast and Slow.

  • Klein. 1998. Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions.

  • Stewart-Patterson. Avalanche Hour Podcast, #7.18: https://www.theavalanchehour.com/

  • Tversky and Kahneman. 1974. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science, 185(4157): 1124-1131.

Luck

  • Childs. 2022. Talent or talismans: was it luck or skill that got this lifer through? Climbing.com: https://www.climbing.com/people/luck-in-climbing/#_

  • Corliss. 2012. Passion conquers all fear. TEDxPortland: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1WJANjY5-w&t=1s

  • Mauboussin. 2012. The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing.

  • Pluchino et al. 2018. Talent vs luck- the role of randomness in success and failure. Advances in Complex Systems, 21(3,4): 1-31.

  • Stock, Joe. 2024. Luck and Avoiding Avalanches. The Avalanche Review, 42.4: 16-17.

Bias

  • Parrish, Shane. Confirmation bias and the power of disconfirming evidence. Farnam Street blog, accessed October 1, 2023: https://fs.blog/confirmation-bias/

  • Parrish, Shane. Hindsight bias, why you’re not as smart as you think you are. Farnam Street blog, accessed October 1, 2023: https://fs.blog/what-is-hindsight-bias/

  • McCammon. 2004. Heuristic traps in recreational avalanche accidents. Avalanche News, #68.

Probability

Social Media

Partners

Checklists

Sense-Making

  • Boilen, Sara. 2023. Toward a conceptual framework for sense and decision making in the backcountry. The Avalanche Review, 41.4: 20-21.

  • Costa and Staples. 2023. Focus on perception not just decision making. The Avalanche Review, 42.1: 18-19.

Chapter 7. Margins for Safety

  • Birkeland, Karl. 2017. Personal communication.

  • Jamieson, Haegeli and Statham. 2015. Uncertainty in snow avalanche risk assessments. GeoQuebec.

  • Parrish, Shane. Margin of safety: An introduction to the mental model. Farnam Street blog, accessed October 1, 2023: https://fs.blog/margin-of-safety/

  • Technical Aspects of Snow and Avalanche Risk Management: Resources and Guidelines for Avalanche Practitioners in Canada. 2016. Canadian Avalanche Association.

Start on Simple Terrain

  • Jones, Jeremy. 2022. The Art of Schralpinism.

Slow Down

Set Safe and Efficient Skin Tracks

Ski Defensively

Turn Around

  • Dawson. 1992. Style Matters: The Art of the Ski Line. Wild Snow blog, accessed June 17, 2023. 

  • Messner. 1971. The Murder of the Impossible. Mountain.

  • Stock, Joe. Turning around: the importance of failure in the mountains. Stock Alpine blog, accessed accessed October 1, 2023: https://www.stockalpine.com/posts/turning-around.html

Consider Others

  • Hardesty. 2014. How the freedom of the hills has become anarchy in the backcountry, Do we need a backcountry responsibility code? Proceedings of the ISSW.

  • Ski Kind. The Backcountry Respondsibility Code: https://www.skikind.org/

Chapter 8. Putting it All Together

Planning

Uncertainty Scale

  • Stock, Joe. 2024. Avalanche uncertainty scale. The Avalanche Review, 42.4: 18-19.

Avaluator

Travel Advice

  • Floyer and Bender. 2018. The Dangerator, A method for estimating avalanche danger in areas with no public avalanche forecasts. Proceedings of the ISSW.

Mindset 

Crux Slopes

Radios

Beacon Check

  • D’Alessio, Nick. 2016. The D'BEST beacon check. The Avalanche Review, vol 35(1): 19. 

Debrief

Chapter 9. Climbing and Avalanches

Chapter 10. Rescue

Burial Time vs Survival

  • Atkins. 2010. Avalanche rescue, The United States experience 1999/00 to 2008/09, Proceeding of the ISSW

  • Haegeli et al. 2011. Comparison of avalanche survival patterns in Canada and Switzerland. Canadian Medical Association Journal, 183(7). 

Airbag

Search Method

Probe Line

  • Ballard et al. 2004. Probing for avalanche victims. Proceedings of the ISSW?

  • Genswein et al. 2014. Slalom probing. Proceedings of the ISSW.

Shoveling

First Aid